last time we talked about, this is something very strange where romney has been playing to the base, even to some extent at his convention, he was doing that. but he shifted towards the center and obama was a little bit feeble in trying to rebut that. that's an important factor. historically candidates who can appear to be in the middle of the electorate tend to win and those on the wings tend to lose. that was a big strategic gain romney made. he was seen as more presidential and acceptable. that stuff will last, i think some of his immediate bounce will fade. >> i know you are brilliant on these numbers but i don't think you're factoring in something that can't be quantified by numbers, called momentum. i come at this as a journalist watching mitt romney surging in confidence and he's got momentum behind him. barack obama is the opposite. he's gone from being super maybe cocky, a bit complacent, he's now looking a bit deflated. he's got to come back. if mitt romney wins the last two debates -- >> oh, sure it's close enough that obama cannot afford to have two more performances like